The fragile certainty of Bonus Depreciation

Acceleration works until it becomes expectation, and expectation is the one thing the Code never guarantees.

Tax incentives survive when they promise speed.

Policymakers gamble that accelerating deductions will accelerate investment. Taxpayers gamble that the rules will stay still long enough to matter.

History suggests both sides overestimate their control.

Bonus depreciation has always lived in this space. A timing tool is treated as a stimulus. A temporary f…